TABLE 1, and we gave each of the
variables, SB, IB, SM,
and IM, an arbitrary initial value. 6. Model simulations
In order to visualize the model’s predictions, we needed to simulate the model. To
do this, we gave each parameter its average value from TABLE 1, and we gave each of the
variables, SB, IB, SM,
and IM, an arbitrary initial value.
We then used a
computer program to calculate the changes in each variable over time, for N
days. The simulation results are visualized on a graph showing how the numbers of
susceptible and infectious birds and mosquitoes are predicted to change over
time (FIGURE 4).
We validated the model by comparing the simulations to observed data, and found that its predictions were sufficiently realistic to be useful. Based on this result, we continued to investigate the model to determine how best to control a potential West Nile outbreak.
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